In November, Indonesia's total stainless steel exports rose approximately 17.31% MoM as demand from major consuming countries showed signs of recovery [SMM Analysis].

Published: Jan 12, 2025 21:12

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[SMM Analysis: Indonesia's Stainless Steel Exports Rose by Approximately 17.31% MoM in November, Driven by Recovering Demand in Major Consumer Countries] In November 2024, Indonesia exported approximately 145,500 mt of stainless steel to China, an increase of about 23,000 mt MoM, with a MoM growth of approximately 18.81% and a YoY decline of about 29.35%...

In November 2024, Indonesia exported approximately 145,500 mt of stainless steel to China, up about 23,000 mt MoM (an increase of 18.81% MoM) but down 29.35% YoY.

By country, among the top 10 export destinations of Indonesia in November, all countries except India and Turkey showed varying degrees of increase. Overall, the total stainless steel export volume exceeded 400,000 mt again, reaching 415,500 mt, up about 61,300 mt MoM. Additionally, the total export volume to the top 10 countries accounted for 99.95% of the monthly export volume, up 0.01 percentage points MoM. In November, the domestic stainless steel market performed poorly, with social inventory destocking progressing slowly. Coupled with the traditional consumption off-season, stainless steel spot prices continued to fluctuate downward. Meanwhile, the futures market was also affected by the return of Indonesian cold-rolled stainless steel for transfer to delivery warehouses in China, leading to a continuous inventory buildup in warehouse warrants. The total stainless steel imports from Indonesia to China in November increased by about 23,000 mt MoM. From the raw material side, the continued decline in stainless steel prices in November intensified the profit losses of stainless steel mills, deepening the negative feedback effect on the raw material side. The price of high-grade NPI, a major raw material for stainless steel, entered a downward trend with persistent declines. However, supported by strong nickel ore prices, the decline in high-grade NPI prices was limited, resulting in weak profit recovery for stainless steel mills, with some enterprises reducing steel production. From other countries, significant increases in November were observed in Taiwan, China; Vietnam; South Korea; and Italy. Driven by stockpiling ahead of Christmas and the expectation that the US will impose higher tariffs on steel mills in 2025, Indonesia's exports showed a notable increase in November. Using Taiwan, China as a hub for shipments to other countries, the export volume to Taiwan, China increased by about 23,900 mt MoM, surpassing the 100,000 mt threshold. Meanwhile, exports to Vietnam, South Korea, and Italy increased by approximately 14.72%, 239.3%, and 62.91% MoM, respectively. Under the growing expectation of higher US tariffs on Chinese steel, the export volume from major stainless steel-producing countries like Indonesia is expected to maintain its growth trend, with Indonesia's stainless steel exports in December likely to continue rising compared to November.

By product type, in November, stainless steel scrap exports were approximately 4,800 mt, up 17.42% MoM and 84.44% YoY; stainless steel billet exports were about 61,900 mt, up 69.98% MoM but down 62.7% YoY; stainless steel hot-rolled exports were about 232,800 mt, up 8.34% MoM and 80.49% YoY; stainless steel cold-rolled exports were about 115,100 mt, up 17.25% MoM and 12.8% YoY; and stainless steel wire rod exports were about 3.42 mt, down 82.6% MoM and 76.27% YoY.

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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